Gay Marriage in Every State by 2024?

So you’ve probably seen the viral video of the people casting out the ‘gay demon’ from the young guy that is floating around the web. And while I will respectfully not show it here, I will post Colbert’s perspective on it.

The Colbert Report Mon – Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Gay Demon on the Loose
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor Jeff Goldblum

Nick and I are currently working to get together a couple of people to discuss this issue specifically and will podcast the conversation as soon as it come to form. Regardless, this is quite shocking video, and honestly, I think we need to grieve this spiritual kind of spiritual abuse in the world/church today.
Also, before getting on to the rest of this post, I wanted to recommend to you again the movie: For the Bible Tells Me So. If you haven’t seen it, go rent it! If you have, see it again invite over a few who have not. I promise, the discussion afterwards will be worth it!!
Finally, here is an interesting email/message I received tracking the statical likelihood of when Gay marriage will constitutionally arrive in every state in the union. That is assuming that the union stays as it is.
Check this out:
The stats whiz Nate Silver , THE ‘go-to’ guy when it comes to reading poll results (and other predictive factors), who best predicted the 2008 Presidential race (and who I referenced a lot in my posts about that) says so.
Following the passage of gay marriage in Iowa he built a predictive model whose outcome is that gay marriage will come in every US state by 2024, with half getting there by 2012. He discovered that you can build it on only three
variables.
1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon; 2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveyswho said that religion was an important part of their daily lives; 3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.
Its accuracy is such that:
The model predicts, for example, that a marriage ban in California in 2008
would have passed with 52.1 percent of the vote, almost exactly the fraction
actually received by Proposition 8.
Because of changes in US society:
1. Marriage bans are losing ground at a rate of slightly less than 2 points per
year.
2. Below are the dates when the model predicts that each of the 50 states would
vote against a marriage ban. Asterisks indicate states which had previously
passed amendments to ban gay marriage.
2009 (now)
Vermont
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Maine
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Nevada*
Washington
Alaska*
New York
Oregon*
2010
California*
Hawaii
Montana*
New Jersey
Colorado*
2011
Wyoming
Delaware
Idaho*
Arizona*
2012
Wisconsin*
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Illinois
2013
Michigan*
Minnesota
Iowa
Ohio*
Utah*
Florida*
2014
New Mexico
North Dakota*
Nebraska*
South Dakota*
2015
Indiana
Virginia*
West Virginia
Kansas*
2016
Missouri*
2018
Texas*
2019
North Carolina
Louisiana*
Georgia*
2020
Kentucky*
2021
South Carolina*
Oklahoma*
2022
Tennessee*
Arkansas*
2023
Alabama*
2024
Mississippi*
Pretty interesting, eh? Or just plain sad? Or just what you’d expect?
joshua case

One thought on “Gay Marriage in Every State by 2024?

  1. Colbert is hilarious as always.
    Interesting statistical data. I doubt that anyone really thinks marriage equality can be held off in the US for long; but I’m a little surprised by the prediction that states like Alaska and Colorado could vote against a ban as early as this year. It’ll be interesting to see how the issue plays out.

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